US tariff hike expected to make credit more expensive and put pressure on unemployment in Brazil

Article summary: The new US tariff hike promises to redefine the course of the global economy, and its effects are already echoing in developing countries like Brazil.

This text analyzes the direct and indirect impacts of the measure, addressing the rise in credit costs, the growing risk of unemployment, and possible ways to mitigate the damage.

We include official data, practical examples, and a table to illustrate the economic impacts.

When the United States imposes higher tariffs on strategic partners, the entire planet reacts—and Brazil, as an emerging power dependent on global supply chains, feels the impact almost immediately.

The new US tariff hike, announced in 2025, is already affecting the Brazilian economic structure: credit is more expensive, unemployment is rising again in key sectors and external distrust is undermining the country's growth projections.

It is no exaggeration to say that current American protectionism threatens to disrupt the logic of interdependence built over recent decades.

And the question that arises is: how will Brazil react to this new global scenario?

A measure with domestic ambitions and international consequences

The new US tariff package directly affects products of Chinese, Indian, Vietnamese and Mexican origin, with the official aim of protecting local jobs and reindustrializing the US.

However, the repercussions extend beyond these borders. Brazil, for example, is already facing distortions in its trade balance, rising import prices, and a loss of international competitiveness.

According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the tariffs affect more than US$1.4 billion in Asian products, mainly related to the areas of technology, semiconductors, steel and renewable energy.

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But how does this data affect the average Brazilian citizen? The answer lies in the flow of global trade and the movement of capital.

With Asian products being taxed in the US, some of these goods end up seeking new markets — like Brazil.

This generates a flood of cheaper products that puts pressure on domestic industry, leading Brazilian companies to reduce profit margins or cut jobs.

Furthermore, international investors' confidence in emerging markets is declining.

Capital flight raises the dollar, puts pressure on inflation, and makes credit more expensive for businesses and consumers.

Direct impacts on the Brazilian credit market

It is on credit that the impact of US tariff hike but it makes itself felt immediately.

When the dollar soars and investors become more cautious, the cost of capital rises—and this is directly reflected in the interest rates offered by Brazilian banks and financial institutions.

Data released by the Central Bank in June 2025 reveal that the average interest rate for legal entities rose from 19.2% per year in December 2024 to 22.8% in the last quarter.

For the end consumer, the effect is equally heavy: personal credit surpassed the 90% mark per year in some institutions.

Companies that were planning to expand their operations are now rethinking their investments.

A clear example comes from the textile sector in the South of the country, where local manufacturers have already reported temporary shutdowns in production lines due to a lack of working capital.

Small business owners, who rely on credit to maintain inventory and pay suppliers, are the first to feel the impact—and the last to recover.

This reality creates a vicious cycle: scarce credit limits growth, and the lack of growth increases the risk of default, making credit even more inaccessible.

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Table: Evolution of the cost of credit in Brazil (2024–2025)

Source: Central Bank of Brazil (June/2025)

The veiled threat to the labor market

With the slowdown in investments, the most serious impact appears in the labor market.

Since April 2025, the number of unemployment insurance claims has been growing in the Southeast and South regions, driven especially by the metallurgy, automotive and electronic equipment sectors.

Anfavea, the association that represents automakers in Brazil, issued a worrying warning: if international conditions remain unfavorable, around 15,000 jobs in the automotive supply chain could be eliminated by the end of the year.

Some of these vacancies have already been frozen since the first semester.

The impact isn't limited to industry. Retailers are also feeling the effects of the decline in consumption, caused by expensive credit and fear of debt.

An appliance store in Salvador reported a 22% drop in sales compared to the same period in 2024 — with direct repercussions on the number of employees hired for the second half of the year.

This environment of uncertainty makes Brazilian workers more vulnerable. Fear of unemployment leads to reduced consumption, a pullback in personal investment, and even abandonment of entrepreneurship.

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Brazil at a crossroads: protecting without isolating

Faced with this new scenario, Brazil faces a complex dilemma: how to protect its economy without resorting to isolationist and reactive policies?

The answer may lie in expanding the diversification of trading partners and modernizing existing agreements, such as Mercosur and the treaty with the European Union, which is at an advanced stage.

It is also necessary to reevaluate tax incentives, strengthen domestic value chains, and invest in technological innovation to make domestic production more competitive.

The creation of credit lines with subsidized rates, aimed at strategic sectors, can be an effective emergency measure.

However, it must be accompanied by oversight mechanisms and job retention targets.

The Brazilian government, in fact, announced in July the release of R$20 billion via BNDES for micro and small companies most impacted by international instability.

The global economy operates as an interconnected system. When the US closes its trade doors, the pressure on others increases.

Brazil, with its economic structure still dependent on inputs and external credit, needs to act intelligently and quickly.

Camouflaged Opportunities: A New Role for Brazil?

Despite the tense scenario, there is room for progress. Some sectors are less exposed to US tariff hike, such as agribusiness, renewable energy and information technology.

Companies that invest in products with national added value can even gain domestic competitiveness in the face of falling imports.

An interesting example comes from the management software sector, which registered growth of 9.8% in the first half of 2025, according to Brazilian Association of Software Companies (ABES).

Because they are digital businesses, with less dependence on logistics and imports, these companies have been hiring, exporting services, and supporting part of the national GDP.

In these cases, the moment can represent not just a crossing, but a turning point.

The risk of structural stagnation

If there is no strategic reaction from the government, the risk of structural economic stagnation is real.

The trend is that the second half of 2025 will be marked by low growth, controlled inflation at the cost of high interest rates and a contraction in the labor market.

The Focus bulletin, released on July 14, 2025, already points to this reality: the GDP forecast for this year was revised from 2.1% to just 1.4%.

Unemployment, which had been falling, began to rise again, reaching 8.6% of the economically active population.

More than just numbers, this scenario represents lives impacted. Families who stopped investing in their children's education, professionals who postponed their dreams, and microentrepreneurs who ceased operations because they could no longer bear the financial pressure.

Is there any doubt about the effects of the Tarifaço?

O US tariff hike It is not an isolated phenomenon — it signals a global trend toward protectionism that could shape the coming decades.

Brazil, with its diversified production matrix, has the potential to overcome this moment.

But this requires more than resilience: it requires strategy, investment, and dialogue between the public and private sectors.

In an increasingly competitive world, protecting the national economy does not mean closing doors, but rather strengthening internal pillars with a long-term vision.

Further reading:

• Understand the real impact of new US tariffs on global trade – BBC Brazil

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the US Tariff?
It is a set of protectionist measures implemented by the United States in 2025 that increased tariffs on foreign products, especially from Asia, to stimulate domestic production.

2. Why is Brazil affected?
Although not directly targeted by the tariffs, Brazil suffers from the redirection of trade flows, capital flight, and loss of international competitiveness.

3. Will credit really become more expensive?
Yes. Increased global instability has already raised average interest rates in Brazil, for both individuals and businesses.

4. Which Brazilian sector is most vulnerable?
Industries dependent on imports and exports, such as automotive, metallurgy, and electronics, are the most impacted in the short term.

5. Is there anything the government can do?
Yes. Stimulus via credit, strategic trade agreements, incentives for local production, and job protection policies are possible ways to mitigate the damage.