Private credit slows in Brazil: which sectors are most affected?

Private credit slows in Brazil and the impact of this goes far beyond corporate spreadsheets.

The lack of financing in the capital markets directly impacts productive sectors, hinders expansion projects, and imposes a new rhythm on the real economy.

Companies with high growth potential are seeing their initiatives frozen, and professionals across a range of fields are already feeling the impact of budget cuts and shrinking opportunities.

In this article, you will understand in a clear, humanized and in-depth way:

• What are the factors that led to the contraction of private credit;
• Sectors that suffer most from this change;
• How this affects hiring, innovation and economic recovery;
• Updated data and an argumentative analysis of the scenario;
• Expectations for the coming months and alternatives in progress.

The contraction of private credit in Brazil is real and worrying

In recent quarters, the Brazilian market has witnessed a clear downward movement.

Private credit slows in Brazil not just as a passing symptom, but as a reflection of a challenging macroeconomic environment, where factors such as high interest rates, regulatory instability and low risk appetite shape investors' decisions.

The Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities (Anbima) reported a drop of 28% in debenture issuance in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

This is the lowest volume recorded since 2020, excluding the most critical period of the pandemic. In addition to debentures, instruments such as CRIs and CRAs also showed a sharp decline.

Reasons behind the downturn: more than just high interest rates

Although the Selic rate, which has remained high since 2023, is one of the main reasons, it is not the only factor that explains why the private credit slows down in Brazil.

Legal and tax uncertainty also plays a fundamental role in this process.

Ongoing tax reform projects, which still lack a clear definition of the taxation of financial instruments, are driving away investors seeking predictability.

The domestic political crisis, combined with global tensions, such as the slowdown in the Chinese market and instability in the US, contributes to a cautious scenario.

Pension funds and insurance companies, which traditionally invest in these securities, are seeking safer, more immediately liquid options, avoiding long-term commitments.

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Most affected sectors: infrastructure, retail and agribusiness on alert

Dependence on capital market resources varies from sector to sector, but some areas already show clear signs of impact.

Infrastructure is one of the most affected, with several energy, sanitation and logistics projects being postponed due to lack of capital.

The cost of financing has risen, and the difficulty of closing issuances is increasing.

Retail, especially publicly traded ones, is also feeling the effects. Companies with high levels of financial leverage face difficulties rolling over debt and refinancing operations.

With margins under pressure from cost inflation and lower consumption, the need for credit becomes even more urgent.

In the case of agribusiness, dependence on instruments such as CRAs (Agribusiness Receivables Certificates) translates into harvest postponements, a reduction in cultivated areas and a slowdown in the acquisition of machinery.

Even with the sector maintaining structural growth, the liquidity crunch is already affecting production chains.

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Market data: a widespread retraction

The table below shows how the main private credit instruments were affected:

Source: Anbima – Capital Markets Report, June 2025

When credit dries up, innovation freezes

A lack of liquidity directly affects companies' innovation cycle. With fewer resources, initiatives that could generate competitive advantages end up being shelved.

R&D teams are shrinking, talent recruitment is on hold, and digitalization and sustainability projects are put on hold.

A clear example is that of a healthtech that planned to expand its operations to three Brazilian states in 2025, but had to keep operations restricted to the Southeast region after the failure to issue R$ 20 million in debentures.

Investors backed away from the company's instability and low risk rating, despite its good market prospects.

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Impacts on career and the job market

The impact isn't limited to corporate sectors. The decline in investment means fewer jobs, a hiring freeze, and increased competition for positions.

Professionals in finance, logistics, engineering, and IT are clearly aware of the trend: fewer open projects means fewer real opportunities.

For many professionals, the challenge becomes staying relevant even in a stagnant environment.

Seeking additional training, developing crisis management skills, and learning about alternative financing are ways to stand out amid scarcity.

An economy held back by a lack of confidence

More than a shortage of money, what we're seeing is a shortage of trust. Investors today demand guarantees, transparency, and shorter-term returns.

But this is not always compatible with the production cycles of sectors such as infrastructure or agribusiness.

The analogy that best describes the current situation is that of a company with gas in the tank, but no driver willing to take the wheel.

Capital exists, but it doesn't move. And meanwhile, private credit slows down in Brazil and paralyzes strategies that previously seemed promising.

Expectations for the second half of 2025

Market experts predict that the recovery could begin gradually from the fourth quarter onwards, if the Selic rate declines more aggressively and the proposed tax reform brings legal certainty to investments.

Another important point will be the behavior of rating agencies, which directly influence bond pricing.

Meanwhile, interest is growing in new forms of fundraising, such as asset tokenization and incentivized debentures linked to ESG projects.

But these formats are still in their early stages and depend on clear regulation and market confidence.

To follow updates on regulation and fixed income securities, visit the website Central Bank of Brazil provides reports and bulletins with validated and updated data.

Conclusion: time to reevaluate priorities

Private credit slows in Brazil and this requires a repositioning of both companies and professionals.

It's time to review strategies, assess risks, and prioritize operational efficiency. With fewer resources available, projects need to be more accurate and sustainable.

The future holds opportunities, but only for those who are prepared to navigate this period with creativity, resilience, and focus.

When confidence returns, those who, even without external strength, maintained internal discipline will come out ahead.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is private credit?
Private credit is financing granted to companies by investors through the capital markets, such as debentures, CRIs, and CRAs.

2. Why is private credit slowing down in Brazil?
Due to factors such as high interest rates, political instability, regulatory uncertainty and risk aversion on the part of institutional investors.

3. Which sectors are most affected?
Infrastructure, retail, agribusiness, and technology are some of the sectors most impacted by the lack of liquidity.

4. Is improvement expected?
Yes, but gradually and subject to falling interest rates and fiscal and regulatory stability.

5. Where can I find reliable information on the topic?
On the official websites of Anbima and the Central Bank, in addition to specialized reports from financial institutions and risk agencies.