How FED (US Central Bank) decisions influence Brazil

Have you ever stopped to think why news from Washington, about a certain “FED”, can cause such a stir in Brazilian economic news?

It seems distant, almost abstract, but the truth is that FED decisions (Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of the United States) are like the flapping of a butterfly's wings in a distant place, capable of causing a hurricane in our economy.

In this article, we'll unravel this mystery. We'll go beyond the obvious, understanding how the financial mechanisms of the world's largest central bank directly connect with your daily life, from the price of food at the supermarket to the profitability of your investments.

Get ready for a journey that transforms the complexity of the financial market into something understandable and, who knows, even fun.

Summary

• Understanding the Fed: The World's “Central Bank”
• The Gears of Influence: How FED decisions arrive in Brazil
  • Impact on Exchange Rates: The Flight of the Dollar
  • Attraction and Repulsion of Capital: The Magnet Effect
  • The Impact on Foreign Trade: Price of Picanha and Fuel
  • The Dilemma of the Central Bank of Brazil: To Raise or Not to Raise the Selic Rate?
• Beyond Interest: Others FED decisions that affect us
  • Quantitative Easing (QE) Policy: The Dollar Injection in the World
  • Communication and Expectations: The Effect of Jerome Powell's Words
• Your Pocket Feeling the Effect: What This Means for Your Money
  • Investments: Fixed Income vs. Variable Income
  • The Cost of Living: Prices, Interest Rates, and Imported Inflation
• Tools for Navigating Turbulence: Finance Apps
• Conclusion
• Frequently Asked Questions

Understanding the Fed: The World's “Central Bank”

To begin with, let's level the playing field. The Federal Reserve System, or FED, is the Central Bank of the United States.

Just as our Central Bank of Brazil (Bacen) controls monetary policy here, the FED does the same for the largest economy on the planet.

Why does this matter so much to us? Simple: the US dollar isn't just the currency of the United States; it's the world's primary reserve currency and the currency used for commercial transactions.

Oil, for example, is priced in dollars. Much of global trade uses the dollar as a benchmark.

Therefore, what happens with monetary policy in the US reverberates throughout the world, and Brazil, as a major player on the global stage, is no exception.

The FED's main tool for fulfilling its mission of maintaining price stability and full employment is the US base interest rate, known as the Fed Funds Rate.

By changing this rate, the FED influences the cost of money in the US and, consequently, in the entire global financial market.

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The Gears of Influence: How FED decisions arrive in Brazil

The relationship between the Fed and Brazil is a complex dance of cause and effect. An interest rate decision in Washington can be the starting point of a chain of events that ends up in your bank account.

Impact on Exchange Rates: The Flight of the Dollar

This is the most direct and visible connection. When the FED decides to raise interest rates in the United States, American financial assets, such as Treasury bonds, become more attractive.

An investor who previously earned 0.25% per year can now have a return of 5.5% with the same low risk.

Think of it this way: If you're a global investor with capital to allocate, what would you do? Would you leave your money in Brazil, with its risks and uncertainties, or would you take it to the US, where the returns are higher and safer?

The answer is obvious: many investors choose to take their money out of emerging countries, like Brazil, and bring it to the US.

This movement of dollars out of our country causes the devaluation of the real, that is, the dollar exchange rate rises.

The reverse is also true: when the FED reduces interest rates, foreign capital can seek higher returns elsewhere, favoring the entry of dollars into Brazil and the devaluation of the US currency here.

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Attraction and Repulsion of Capital: The Magnet Effect

Here, the concept of “carry trade” comes into play. The carry trade is a financial strategy in which an investor borrows money in a country with low interest rates and invests it in another with higher interest rates to profit from the difference.

For years, investors used the dollar as a lending currency to invest in Brazil and profit from the high Selic interest rate.

However, when the FED decisions raise the US interest rate, the carry trade loses its meaning.

The cost of borrowing in dollars increases, and the potential return in Brazil becomes less attractive, leading these investors to liquidate their positions here and repatriate their money.

This capital repulsion movement accelerates the flight of dollars and the appreciation of the US currency.

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The Impact on Foreign Trade: Price of Picanha and Fuel

Exchange rates aren't just a number on a financial website; they have a direct impact on your daily life.

A strong dollar makes all imported products more expensive, from electronics and car parts to wheat and fertilizers used in agriculture.

In Brazil, the impact is even more perverse. Even products we consume but that are produced in the country can have their prices pegged to the dollar.

Gasoline and diesel, for example, have their reference prices on the international market, quoted in dollars.

Furthermore, many agricultural inputs are imported, which raises the final price of foods like bread and meat. Yes, that more expensive picanha at the butcher's may, in part, have to do with FED decisions.

The Dilemma of the Central Bank of Brazil: To Raise or Not to Raise the Selic Rate?

Faced with a rising dollar, our Central Bank faces a complex dilemma.

If the real depreciates, inflation tends to rise (so-called "imported inflation"). To combat this pressure, the Central Bank may be forced to raise the Selic rate.

This is a real tug-of-war. On the one hand, the Selic rate hike helps attract foreign investors, stabilizing the exchange rate.

On the other hand, it makes domestic credit more expensive for companies and families, slowing economic growth.

The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee), responsible for setting the Selic rate, needs to consider domestic monetary policy, inflation expectations and external pressures, such as those generated by FED decisions.

It is a difficult task, which shows the interdependence of our economy with what happens abroad.

Beyond Interest: Others FED decisions that affect us

The interest rate is the star of the show, but other FED decisions also have a significant impact.

Quantitative Easing (QE) Policy: The Dollar Injection in the World

During crises, the FED can resort to an unconventional tool: the Quantitative Easing (QE).

In short, QE is the massive purchase of government bonds and other assets, injecting trillions of dollars into the economy.

This injection of liquidity has a side effect: the excess dollars in the global market seek better returns, flowing to emerging countries like Brazil.

This can generate an artificial appreciation of assets here (stocks, real estate) and even financial bubbles.

When the FED decides to “normalize” monetary policy and stop injecting money (the so-called tapering), the flow reverses, and money begins to flow back to the US, which could cause turbulence in Brazilian capital markets.

Communication and Expectations: The Effect of Jerome Powell's Words

It's not just concrete actions that matter. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's words during press conferences are scrutinized by analysts and investors around the world.

A single sentence can signal the future of monetary policy and, in a matter of seconds, make the dollar rise or fall globally.

Markets move based on expectations. If Powell suggests the Fed will be more hawkish (more inclined to raise interest rates), investors anticipate this and begin shifting capital.

This “guided communication” shows that the Fed’s influence is as much about what it does as what it says it will do.

Your Pocket Feeling the Effect: What This Means for Your Money

Now, let's get to the point: how does all this complexity translate into your financial life?

Investments: Fixed Income vs. Variable Income

If you invest, the FED decisions should be part of your analysis. When the Fed raises interest rates, the dollar tends to appreciate.

For those who have investments tied to the US currency, such as exchange-traded funds or BDRs, this can be advantageous.

In the equity market, the story is more complicated. Rising global interest rates make capital more expensive and may discourage investment in emerging markets, negatively impacting the performance of the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3).

In fixed income, the Selic rate tends to follow the Fed's movements. If our Central Bank raises interest rates to curb inflation, fixed-income securities like the Tesouro Direto Selic become more attractive.

The Cost of Living: Prices, Interest Rates, and Imported Inflation

The impact of FED decisions in your daily life is felt in your purchasing power. Imported inflation (via the high dollar) makes everything more expensive, from your monthly groceries to electronics.

The resulting increase in the Selic rate, intended to combat this inflation, also increases the cost of credit in Brazil. Think about financing your car or the loan you want to take out. Everything becomes more expensive.

Tools for Navigating Turbulence: Finance Apps

To keep up with what's happening in the financial world and prepare for turbulence, technology is your greatest ally.

There are apps that can help you monitor the dollar exchange rate and market news in real time.

• Investing.com: This is one of the most comprehensive. In addition to real-time currency and stock quotes, it offers a detailed economic calendar, where you can follow FED meetings and other important events, as well as updated news.
• TradeMap: An investment app that lets you track your portfolio and access market news and analysis. Ideal for those who want to see the impact of FED decisions in their own assets.
• PRO Value (Economic Value): For those seeking more in-depth analysis, the Valor Econômico newspaper app is a great choice. It offers news and expert opinions that help you understand market movements in depth.

Conclusion

The FED decisions are far from being the exclusive concern of economists or Wall Street investors.

They are the basis of a complex web of interdependence that links the world's largest economy to ours, here in Brazil.

Understanding this connection is the first step to protecting yourself and even profiting from market fluctuations.

The dollar isn't just a currency; it's a barometer of global economic health. And by understanding how the Fed's actions influence this barometer, you become a more informed participant and prepared to deal with the challenges and opportunities that the global economic landscape presents.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does “FED interest rate hike” mean?

This means the Federal Reserve has raised the cost of money in the United States. This makes borrowing more expensive and makes the dollar more attractive to global investors, which could lead to capital flight from emerging markets like Brazil, resulting in a stronger dollar.

Why is Brazil so affected by the FED's decisions?

Brazil, as an emerging country, is more sensitive to international capital flows.

When interest rates in the US rise, venture capital tends to return to a safer haven, which puts pressure on the exchange rate and requires a response from our Central Bank, such as raising the Selic rate, to contain inflation.

What is Copom and what is its relationship with the FED?

Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) is the body of the Central Bank of Brazil responsible for setting the Selic rate.

Although its decisions are independent, Copom must consider the global scenario, including the decisions of the Federal Reserve, when defining domestic monetary policy.

The Selic rate is frequently adjusted in response to FED movements to maintain the balance of our economy.

How can I protect myself from dollar fluctuations?

For those who don't intend to travel abroad, one way is to diversify their investments. Shares in exporting companies or investment funds that operate in dollars can serve as a natural hedge.

Additionally, following the news and having a robust financial plan are the best strategies.