Credit trends to watch through the end of 2025

In 2025, the Brazilian financial market is undergoing a transformation, and credit trends to watch will redefine the way people and businesses finance themselves.

The Credit trends to watch reflect the interconnectedness of technology, regulation and the growing demand for fairer and more transparent products.

This authoritative article explores the forces shaping the future of finance. We analyze how you can navigate this dynamic landscape and seize the new opportunities that emerge.

Summary

1. The Global Credit Landscape in 2025: National Projections
2. The Digital Revolution and Financial Inclusion
3. Sustainability and Green Credit
4. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Shaping the Future of Credit
5. Personal Credit and the Focus on Financial Well-Being
6. Credit Trends to Watch: What to Expect in Brazil

The Global Credit Landscape in 2025: National Projections

Credit in Brazil continues its expansion trajectory, despite persistent challenges in the global and local macroeconomic scenario.

Initial projections for 2025 indicate robust but cautious growth, driven by relative stability.

Febraban's Banking Economy and Expectations Survey reveals a positive, albeit moderate, outlook for the current year.

This analysis shows that the total volume of credit in the country is expected to grow approximately in 2025, an important indicator.

This growth is concentrated in specific portfolios, such as rural and real estate credit, which have targeted resources and significant subsidies.

On the other hand, free credit for consumers and companies remains cautious due to still high interest rates.

Default continues to be a limiting factor, especially in revolving credit and in modalities with higher perceived risk.

The banks and the fintechs adjust their concession policies to mitigate the financial impacts.

Faced with the high cost of capital, companies focus on more selective projects with quick financial returns.

Reducing leverage has become a priority to maintain corporate health.

Monitoring the Selic rate and fiscal policy will be crucial to determining the speed and sustainability of this projected growth.

The economy needs clear signals to boost consumption and private investment.

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The Digital Revolution and Financial Inclusion

The deep digitalization of finance is undeniably one of the main Credit trends to watch this year.

Digital platforms and fintechs continue to challenge the traditional credit granting model.

Open Finance, now well established, allows financial institutions to offer much more personalized credit proposals to consumers.

You have the power to share your data and get better conditions in the market.

The evolution of Pix, with the introduction of features like Automatic Pix, simplifies recurring payment routines and offers greater transaction security. This reduces friction and operational costs of credit.

Secured credit, such as home equity (real estate) and the auto equity (vehicle) is gaining increasing popularity due to its attractive interest rates. Many people seek to refinance expensive debts at reduced rates.

Note the analogy: the modern credit market is like an orchestra conducted by a digital maestro.

Technology does not replace, but coordinates each instrument, ensuring a more harmonious access melody.

This greater banking inclusion reaches millions of Brazilians who previously depended on informal and expensive payment methods.

Easier access to financial services is a victory for technology.

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Sustainability and Green Credit

The integration of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors into the credit market has gone from being a niche practice to a mandatory requirement. Investors and regulators demand transparency and accountability.

This is one of the most promising Credit trends to watch, focused on fostering a low-carbon economy, especially in Brazil, with its vast agricultural matrix.

The Central Bank (BC) demonstrates its commitment to the agenda by working to expand the “Green Bureau” and conduct public consultations on climate risks.

Sustainability is at the heart of the agenda.

The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) is also moving forward, implementing the Sustainable Finance Action Plan, which impacts the issuance of green and social bonds in the capital markets.

Although sustainable bond issuance was volatile in the first half of 2025, institutional investor demand for ESG assets remains high.

Financing for sustainable agriculture, such as the 2024/2025 Harvest Plan, reinforces the requirement for rigorous environmental practices, such as combating illegal deforestation on properties.

The link to the website of Central Bank of Brazil can be consulted for detailed information on the BC# Agenda and sustainability initiatives in the financial sector: Central Bank of Brazil.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Shaping the Future of Credit

Artificial Intelligence and Generative AI are radically transforming risk analysis, fraud detection, and customer experience. They act as catalysts for efficiency.

For the financial sector, AI is an indispensable tool that optimizes decision-making and personalizes credit product offerings. The technology opens up a new frontier.

A relevant statistic from McKinsey indicates that banks can earn an added value of billions to billion due to the increased effectiveness of Generative AI.

The impact of AI ranges from the analysis of big data to calculate the score from credit to the automation of internal processes. This speeds up approval and reduces human error.

KPMG points out that, in the financial services sector, the expectation is that the adoption of AI will reach in the next three years, exceeding the average of other segments of the economy.

Banks invest heavily in solutions machine learning to predict default with much more accuracy, balancing risk and fair credit supply.

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Personal Credit and the Focus on Financial Well-Being

Personal credit is diversifying, with consumers seeking cheaper options with longer repayment terms. The main focus is on family financial restructuring.

The consigned loan, for example, continues to be a prominent modality due to its lower interest rate and direct discount on the payroll or benefit.

While the loan secured by assets is becoming the darling for major renovations or investments, offering substantial relief on the final interest rate of the transaction.

Below, you can see some of the average market rates for popular courses, as of 2025 (actual rates may vary by institution).

The significant cost difference between secured and unsecured lines of credit is evident. This discrepancy demonstrates the importance of carefully planning your financing.

Using this information intelligently allows you to choose the best tool for your situation and credit needs, optimizing your financial planning.

Credit Trends to Watch: What to Expect in Brazil

In national territory, the main one of the Credit trends to watch lies in the convergence between regulation and technological innovation. The Central Bank works to modernize.

Drex (Real Digital) is still in testing, promising to optimize asset tokenization and the creation of smart contracts for credit transactions. This could reduce bureaucracy.

A practical example of this optimization would be the formalization of an Agricultural Credit through a smart contract on the Drex platform. The guarantee and payments would be automatically managed.

Another strong trend is the rise of regional banks and cooperatives, which offer advantageous conditions because they have greater knowledge of the profile of their local customers.

They use proximity and relationships to mitigate risks, competing effectively with large national financial institutions.

Despite the caution, the second half of 2025 is expected to show a slight improvement in rates for the end consumer, as long as inflation remains under control.

Conclusion

The Credit trends to watch by the end of 2025 point to a future where access is more digital, personalized and, above all, more responsible.

Technology serves as a driver of democratization, forcing financial institutions to be more transparent and competitive in their credit offerings.

Your role as a consumer or financial manager is to stay informed and use the power of your data to get the best deals available on the market.

After all, in a scenario of so many innovations and economic changes, are you prepared to make the smartest decisions about your next loan?

FAQ – Frequently Asked Questions

1. What role will AI play in personal credit in 2025?

AI plays a central role in personalization. It uses your financial history, consumption data, and even Open Finance information to accurately model risk. This generates tailored credit proposals.

2. What is “Green Credit” and how does it work for the consumer?

Green Credit finances projects with a positive environmental impact. For consumers, a unique example would be a mortgage with a reduced interest rate for the installation of solar panels in their home.

3. Will interest rates fall at the end of 2025?

Projections depend directly on the Central Bank's monetary policy and inflation control, but growing market competition tends to push rates down. Defaults still raise concerns.

4. How can I check the authority of an economics website?

Search official websites of regulatory agencies (such as the Central Bank and the CVM) and major specialized media outlets. Checking sources ensures the veracity of the information you consume.

5. Where can I find updated data on the credit market?

You can regularly consult the website of Ministry of Finance to access macroeconomic and fiscal reports, as well as analyses of the National Treasury, essential for the credit market: Ministry of Finance.